Four tests to tell a skill worth investing in from one that resets with the next model release.
The job moved from prompting to supervising in about two years. It will move again. You cannot predict the frontier, but you can tell which of your skills will survive it.
The four tests
Tool or judgment? Skills tied to one tool’s buttons age fast. Skills tied to judgment travel.
Does it move up the stack? As AI takes a task, value moves to directing and checking it.
Human-in-the-loop? Skills that are the human check get more valuable as output gets more polished.
Portable across tools? A skill you carry between models compounds. One locked to today’s interface resets.
How to use it
Run any skill you are tempted to invest in past the four tests. The ones that pass, directing, verifying, judging, escalating, are worth getting good at. Re-run the filter whenever a model changes under you. Pair with Staying Current Without the Chaos and The Career Ladder Is Missing a Rung.